# Dynamic Estimation of the Epidemiological Parameters of the COVID-19 Outbreak and the Effects of Interventions on Its Spread

## README

The files in this repository are the raw data and model results used for analysis and visualization for the corresponding entitled [paper](http://47.88.218.166/pdfs/COVID_19_Dynamic.pdf).

### `Raw_data.csv`

`Raw_data.csv` includes officially reported number of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan from 1/18/2020 to 3/05/2020.

`N_report`: The officially reported cumulative number of infected cases.

`Q_report`: The officially reported number of actively infected and quarantined cases.

`R_report`: The officially reported cumulative number of removed cases (including death and cure cases).

The detail of data processing can be found in the [paper](http://47.88.218.166/pdfs/COVID_19_Dynamic.pdf).

### `N_true.csv`

`N_true.csv`  shows the estimated true cumulative number of infected cases in Wuhan with 95% credible interval.

### `Re.csv`

`Re.csv` shows the effective reproduction number $R$ in wuhan from 1/19/2020 to 2/24/2020 with 95% credible interval. $R$ is estimated using a rolling-window approach with 10-day window size. Therefore $R$ of day $t$ indicates the transmissibility of COVID-19 in Wuhan over the time window of $[t,t+10]$.

